Viewpoint. On March 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin, within the presence of Xi Jinping, formally unveiled the character of the warfare with the US, “We’re for using the Chinese language yuan in settlements between the Russian Federation and nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America.”
By Régis Chamagne
If Vladimir Putin says this now, it’s as a result of the situations are met: diplomatic, army, financial and monetary.
A quick reminder
Briefly, let’s keep in mind that American energy is predicated on the greenback because the world’s reserve forex. This state of affairs permits the US to feed the Ponzi pyramid on which the greenback is predicated as a result of nations all over the world want {dollars} for his or her commerce. The mission of the American military is to impose the greenback on the entire planet and to punish recalcitrant nations once they come ahead: Libya, for instance, which had ambitions to launch a pan-African forex linked to gold. The collapse of the greenback will due to this fact be the actual witness to the geopolitical paradigm shift.
A phrase of clarification
To completely respect the importance of Vladimir Putin’s assertion, one factor should be stored in thoughts: official statements by heads of state don’t typically announce an intention, however more often than not they reveal a course of that has already begun and been validated, they evoke a fait accompli. Thus, if Vladimir Putin has introduced the tip of the greenback’s hegemony, it’s as a result of the matter has been underway for a while and has reached its important level, the place the American financial system is in nice hazard. A lot in order that the problem was just lately mentioned on CNN; the economist invited to debate the problem merely mentioned that de-dollarization could be a catastrophe for the US and the American individuals, that it will result in hyperinflation in the US.
The error of the US and the EU
Furthermore, past the technical explanations, the failure of sure American banks could also be solely the foretaste of the worldwide collapse of the Ponzi pyramid.
The state of play
Within the monetary sphere, the US and the EU dug their very own graves, again in 2014, by excluding some Russian banks from the SWIFT interbank alternate system. This prompted Russia and China to develop their very own methods. Immediately, China’s CIPS will assist exchanges between nations outdoors the West. However SWIFT shouldn’t be solely a monetary system, additionally it is, and maybe above all, a treasured intelligence instrument, as a result of it permits to know all of the business exchanges between the nations of the world. Thus, financial exchanges between nations outdoors the West will turn into more and more opaque to the US and the West on the whole. This can be a disgrace.
In parallel, the Shanghai-based BRICS New Improvement Financial institution (NDB) was formally opened in July 2015. Dilma Roussef has simply been appointed as its head. All of the instruments are due to this fact in place for the event of commerce outdoors the greenback. Furthermore, the Indian central financial institution now authorizes worldwide funds in Indian rupees and Saudi Arabia is making ready to promote its oil to China in yuans; that is the tip of the petrodollar.
Diplomatic conferences
Within the diplomatic discipline, issues are accelerating and occasions are following each other. Let’s point out the newest ones, lower than a month previous:
- Re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, beneath the auspices of China.
- Reception of Bashar al-Assad by Vladimir Putin in Moscow. On this regard, we should observe the operations in Syria and the destiny of the American army installations there.
- Bashar al-Assad and his spouse journey to the United Arab Emirates.
- Iran and Iraq signed a safety cooperation settlement to cease CIA-backed Kurdish actions.
- Xi Jinping acquired by Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
- Xi Jinping acquired Luiz Inacio Lula in Beijing for 5 days.
- Russia-Africa discussion board in Moscow with African leaders.
This diplomatic sequence comes after a 12 months of nice change on the planet. Step by step, the non-aligned nations have moved from a posture of benevolent neutrality to implicit assist (to say the least) for Russia, as evidenced by the rejection of Western nations by Africa and the current Russia-Africa discussion board. Extra importantly, the 2 organizations that underpin the rising new geopolitical paradigm, the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) and the BRICS, are more and more enticing.
Russian dolls
Recall that the SCO is formed like a Russian doll, with member nations within the first circle, observer nations within the second and dialogue companions within the third circle. The assembly in Samarkand on September 15-16, 2022, clarified Iran’s obligations to hitch the group, launched the method of approving Belarus as a member state, and agreed to make Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the Maldives, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Myanmar new dialogue companions.
As for the BRICS, beneath China’s initiative of the “BRICS Plus” format in Could 2022, the group will be capable to open its door extra simply to future members. There are at the moment 4 official functions: Algeria, Argentina, Iran and Mexico; nations that every one have some regional weight. There are additionally many expressions of curiosity, not but official: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea.
We’re witnessing the tipping of the world in direction of this new geopolitical paradigm which is being put in place increasingly quickly and concretely.
Navy operations in assist
In my earlier article, I discussed the potential of at the least two strategic choices for Russia in its warfare in Ukraine. It now appears cheap to assume that Vladimir Putin, with the assist of China and others, has opted for the predominantly financial choice of strangling Western nations, with army motion serving the “dominant thrust.
Seen from this angle, Russian technique and ways in Ukraine tackle a special which means. It’s a query of constructing the warfare final by a tactic of sluggish however steady nibbling, destroying the successive armies raised by Ukraine and NATO till the exhaustion of the West, economically and consequently militarily.
Let’s quote on this regard Yevgeny Prigogin who had declared on November 28, 2022: “Our activity shouldn’t be Bakhmut (Artyomovsk) itself, however the destruction of the Ukrainian military.” The phrase “activity” is essential, as a result of it clearly implies that Wagner has a selected mission, so in coordination with the Russian Normal Employees.
By having made Bakhmut-Artyomovsk a strategic goal militarily, however particularly symbolic, the Russians entice Ukrainian models that, offloading different elements of the entrance, are laminated one after one other. The upkeep of 600,000 males alongside the entrance line additionally gives the potential of strategic offensives in a number of locations, thus a everlasting menace that poses a headache for the NATO workers.
Alongside this technique of attrition and exhaustion, Russia is asserting its technological superiority by the sparing and even handed use of hypersonic missiles to dissuade NATO nations from taking the additional step. A current salvo of six missiles, considered one of which reportedly destroyed a secret NATO headquarters on the outskirts of Kiev, sends a transparent message: six hypersonic missiles are sufficient to sink six American plane carriers concurrently.
The collapse of the greenback is underway
What subsequent?
Just about, Russia has already gained in opposition to the US and NATO. The emergence of a multipolar world has accelerated dramatically over the previous 12 months, particularly in current weeks, and is turning into a actuality earlier than our eyes. The collapse of the greenback is underway and we will predict a succession of Western financial institution failures and hyperinflation within the brief time period.
On the bottom, Russia will reintegrate Novorussia into its federation. How? Both by a fast army offensive as soon as the Ukrainian military is completely exhausted, or by negotiations wherein it should impose its situations.
Within the previous world, the autumn of the greenback will result in a collapse of the usual of residing in the US, to the purpose the place one wonders whether or not the Union will survive this shock, and by domino impact, a fall of the Western and European economies. We’ll witness the dismantling of NATO and the EU and insurrectionary phenomena, not essentially violent, resulting in regime change.
This shall be a possibility for France to recuperate its sovereignty and its place on the planet if the brand new regime is worthy of it.
